Banks have declined lately to place their money in government bonds carrying interests below 42%, following the announcement concerning the inflation rise, attempting thus to put pressure on the Finance Ministry with a view to a possible raise in interests.
Taking into account the significant weight of Government bonds in every bank's portfolio and the descending trend lately registered by interest rates, analysts estimate that this action is rather well-grounded.
"In my opinion, interest rates reached the bottom line, and if we take into account that the announced inflation rate can no longer be achieved, the trend lately followed by interests may reverse in the following period, so that they actually may start to go up," stated Alin Savastre, a dealer with BRD-SocGen.
He also said that it was most likely that interests for Government bonds issued on a six-month period might soon reach 45%. His statement is also supported by the slight increase posted in the last bids.
According to market dealers, two scenarios are possible at this point. In the first scenario, interests would increase, but only for Government bonds issued on a six-month period, because Finance ministry would no longer accept to place bills on shorter periods, in an attempt to report the entire debt for the next financial year.
Thus, the Finances would manage to maintain this year's deficit within the limits agreed with the IMF, and banks would also be relatively pleased since they now have to place money to the Finance Ministry with interests below inflation.
The second scenario, less favoured by banks, would be to maintain interests at the same level, around 40-41%, taking the risk of an increased pressure on the currency exchange rate.
In the latest period, Finance Ministry has no longer attracted Government bonds for periods shorter than six months, as it is more comfortable with the income based on foreign money.
In the last tenders for three-month due government bonds, Finances rejected all offers submitted by commercial banks, arguing that they were not offering an acceptable yield. Instead, they attracted as much as possible on longer periods.
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