Romania's exports in July reached the highest monthly level after 1989, of 1.83 billion euros, that is half the exports registered in 1992. In the first seven months of this year, the increase reached 20%.
This advance, posted in the context where the euro rose by a mere 11% on the average as compared to the similar period of last year, shows the Romanian economy is slowly starting to "roll".
However, even at 1.82 billion euros per month and 20 billion euros per year, exports are still low. It is only when Romania starts selling commodities abroad worth 50-60 billion euros, that we shall be able to speak about a "rally", and when it reaches 80 billion per year that we will have reached Hungary's or Poland's current level. At a 20% yearly growth pace, this might happen in 9 or 10 years. Hungary, which is half the size of Romania, in 2003 registered exports standing at 38 billion euros.
The quicker growth of exports despite a lower devaluation or even a nominal appreciation of the ROL against the euro, as has happened this year, is backing up the National Bank in its policy of a real appreciation of the domestic currency (lower devaluation against inflation). Last year, exports registered a mere 6% advance, despite the steep devaluation of the average ROL/euro exchange rate, of 20%.
Imports did not progress much faster than exports in the first seven months - 22%, but this was enough to push the FOB/CIF trade deficit (excluding transportation and insurance costs) to 3.5 billion euros, 27% higher against last year. sorin.pislaru@zf.ro
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