The euro is about to end the year at close to 4.2 RON, and mayeven end up lower than that. Who anticipated the stability of theexchange rate in the last three quarters correctly six monthsago?
Most analysts maintained exchange rate forecasts for December at4.1 to 4.3 RON/EUR throughout the year, correctly anticipating thatthe NBR will not allow an additional depreciation of the exchangerate after the fast-paced depreciation in the autumn of 2008 andthe first two months of this year.
On the other hand, exchange rate forecasts made in June or earlierwent as far as down to 4 RON/EUR, coming from Florian Libocor,chief economist of BRD, and as far up as 4.5 RON, which was thelevel anticipated by Rozalia Pal, UniCredit Tiriac's chiefeconomist and Nicolaie Chidesciuc, ING's chief economist, accordingto a poll conducted by BUSINESS Magazin this summer. In April,after the signing of the deal with the International Monetary Fundand the European Union, Chidesciuc even felt the euro might go upto 4.7 RON in six months.
The Turks at Credit Europe were most accurate in terms of forecast,given that they anticipated a 4.2-4.25 RON/EUR interval for the endof the year.
The National Bank calculated a 4.2119 RON/EUR exchange rateyesterday, 0.62 bani above the previous level. The average exchangerate since the beginning of the year has been 4.24 RON/EUR, that is15% above the 2008 average.
"I kept in mind the positive economic signals emerging in thesecond half, not necessarily of a rebound, but rather of aconfirmation that the economic contraction is past its worst. Atthe same time I envisioned a less tense political environment. Whatmatters is that, overall, decision-makers with an impact on thesocial-economic and political environments have found resources toaddress the tensions and move on," says Florian Libocor, BRDSocGen's chief economist and chairman of the Association ofFinancial-Banking Analysts (AAFBR). He believes the RON isundervalued for the time being and expects to see the exchange raterevert to less than 4 RON/EUR in 2010.
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