The government has, like in previous years, ventured to come upwith an optimistic draft budget, forecasting nearly 7% higherbudget revenues in 2011 against this year, risking to overestimatethe amounts it can raise in taxes.
In addition, there are talks within the ruling party PD-L ofcutting the flat rate or social contributions in 2011, which wouldlead to lower budget revenues unless they are compensated by othermeasures. And talks with the IMF on next year's budget are about tobegin. The minimum tax has been eliminated, but so far no solutionhas been agreed to fill the hole.
Under the circumstances, Ionuţ Dumitru, head of the Fiscal Council,says an analysis of a draft version that will be subject tosignificant changes is premature. Anyway, analysts recommendcautiousness when devising the budget and say a 7% revenue increasewould be possible only if the economy returned to positiveterritory, and posted at least 2% growth, which is not at all acertainty.
"We should be cautious as far as the percentage of growth forbudgetary revenues is concerned. Otherwise we can end up with anoverestimate - we will make the forecast expenditures, but will notachieve the forecast revenues, which will put a lot of pressure onthe budget deficit,' says Lucian Anghel, chief economist of theBCR, the biggest bank on the Romanian market.
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
