Romania's economic growth over the next few years will bringthe GDP back to the 2008 level after the 7.2% drop in 2009. It willnot happen any sooner than 2012, though.
Romania will not offset the economic decline caused by thecrisis any sooner than 2012, GDP growth forecasts of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) reveal, but bank analysts aremore optimistic and see the GDP in euros reverting to the 2008level in 2011, partly because of the stronger RON.
IMF anticipates the Gross Domestic Product to go up by 1.3%this year, by 4.7% next year and by 5.7% in 2012.
Therefore, from a GDP of 136.8 billion euros in 2008, Romaniawill reach a 133.9 billion-euro GDP in 2011 and will offset thelosses from the crisis period in 2012, when it reaches 145 billioneuros. Depending on the exchange rate estimates used in calculatingGDP for the coming years, Romania could reach the 2008 level assoon as 2011, a scenario thought to be attainable by the chairmanof the National Forecasting Commission, Ion Ghizdeanu.
RBS, ING and Raiffeisen Bank analysts expect the economy torevert to the pre-crisis level until the end of 2011.
Analysts of Erste Group, BCR's majority shareholder, are moresceptical and believe that Romania will not reach the pre-crisisGDP level any sooner than 2012, although their 2010 GDP growthforecast stands at 1.9%, significantly higher than IMF's, and at 3%for 2011.
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