Governor Mugur Isărescu will have to convince in today's pressconference that the National Bank can keep prices in check in 2011and rebuild trust in the NBR's monetary policy, after in each ofthe last four years inflation was above target.
This is the governor's first press conference this year, where heis set to present the inflation report for the fourth quarter of2010, as well as make forecasts on the price trend over the nexttwo years. Most analysts expect the NBR to come with a lessoptimistic forecast as far as this year's price increase isconcerned, after last autumn it expected inflation to slow down to3.4% in December 2011, i.e. close to the official target of 3%.According to an internal survey conducted by the Association ofFinancial-Banking Analysts, the average analyst forecast for the2011 inflation is 4.3%, i.e. also above the upper inflation targetlimit.
The main risks now have to do with the international trend ofmaking food and fuels more expensive, which has already been felton the Romanian market. Last year consumer prices climbed nearly8%, although the official inflation target was 3.5%. The shock ofthe VAT hike from 19% to 24% in the summer, as well as the foodprice increases that occurred in autumn overturned the downwardtrend of inflation.
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
