Daniel Negrescu, brand manager of wine producer Murfatlar, saysthe wine market will resume growth a year after the recession isover, and the economic rebound will not be felt immediately interms of consumption because people will be tempted to save morethan they used to in 2007-2008.
"A lot of people are losing sight of one aspect. Even if alleconomic indicators return to growth, it doesn't mean consumptionwill rebound and everybody will start to spend right away. It istrue that when incomes fall and things are bad, one starts to makecuts from day two. Let's not forget that consumers have been markedby the crisis. They will not go spend all their money the very nextday," Negrescu told ZF in an interview.
The Romanian wine market is put at around 450 million euros peryear and 6 million hectolitres and, according to Murfatlar, it fellby up to 10% in 2009 in terms of volume and by over 10% in terms ofvalue.
"Now people will be much more cautious and even if things aregood, consumption will not rise that fast. It is very hard to makechanges in consumer behaviour go away. No one will take out a loanfor a child's birthday party or for anything else that wasfashionable at one point or another," believes the Murfatlarmanager.
Economic recovery will be important for business, he adds,firstly because money will be recovered faster from the market,whereas consumption will not rebound straight away.
The around 10% decline recorded in 2009 places the wine marketin the category of markets that have not been very much affected bythe economic crisis. The significant decline in the value of themarket compared with the volumes sold is explained by the migrationof consumers from the medium price segment to the low-pricedone.
"The biggest segment of the market was the medium-priced one,which was the most affected because many consumers moved to thelow-priced segment due to the economic conditions," saysNegrescu.
The average price in the wine industry is 9-10 RON, and thefirst signs of this migration appeared at the end of 2008 when thewinter holiday period no longer brought the traditional salesboom.
"2008 saw rises, but not as high as in past years. Those werethe first signs that it was a time of new values. 2009 consolidatedthis trend. He said it was not just a signal, but that things werechanging," Negrescu added.
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