US' Occidental Petroleum Corp. is not interested in Petrom's downstream (refining and fuel retail) operations at all and its vision for the Romanian company is not the same as the Government's.
On the other hand, Austrian Raiffeisen Bank's analysts say OMV seems to be the most likely winner in the race for Petrom, but if its offer is too low, the government is likely to consider the proposition of Hungary's MOL Group to form a strategic partnership that would entail an equity swap between the two companies. The bids of the three companies for the controlling interests in Petrom are now analysed by the Economy Ministry and by its consultant.
"Our discussions have been non-responsive with what the government wants. We have no interest in downstream. Our getting into Romania on the upstream is a long shot," Occidental Petroleum Corporation's Chief Executive Ray Irani was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.
This is the first official statement ever made by Occidental on participating in SNP Petrom's privatisation.
The Romanian State is selling 33.34% directly to a strategic investor, which is to later participate in a capital increase to acquire the rest up to 51%. International analysts estimate the deal at $1-$1.3bn.
"On the other hand, only OMV made an offer absolutely in line with conditions set up in the tender," Raiffeisen's analysts say in a report on the Central and Eastern European companies.
"We believe the only target of the Romanian government is to get the highest inflow from the privatisation in a certain time. From this point of view, OMV seems to be the most likely winner, but anything could happen till final decision. In the case, OMV's offer is too low, the government is more likely to consider MOL's partnership proposed. A further delay of privatisation is also a possible scenario. Preliminary decision is expected in two weeks," Raiffeisen bank's analysts say.
They add MOL has still a chance in Petrom privatisation, but Petrom is not crucial to the Hungarian company. MOL has the opportunity to take an additional loan of 0.8-1 billion euros in the case of an acquisition. Nevertheless, timing of Petrom privatisation is not favourable to MOL, either, as selling gas segments would provide additional cash only later, the Austrian bank's survey shows.
A MOL failure in Petrom's case would mean the Hungarian group "chased after two rabbits" and caught none: the Poles at PKN, who have already backed out of the race for Petrom were the only ones to place a bid for Czech Republic's Unipetrol, a race from which MOL withdrew.
Petrom saw revenues shrink in ROL for the first time in 2003. The revenues in euros fell 19% to 1.89bn euros. The net profit was down to 38 million euros.
adrian.mirsanu@zf.ro
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