After fuel sales declines as steep as 20% were announced for the first months of the year, the top six companies on the market are all saying the first six months of the year in fact saw flat sales from last year on the retail segment and only corporate clients consumed 10-20% less in this period. Thus, the market declined by only 3% from the first six months of 2008, and estimates for the entire year are much more upbeat from early 2009. How can this be explained?
Major players' answers are surprising given that since January until April-May all had reported even two-digit drops in fuel sales, with the rebound coming in the final period of the first half of 2009.
"At the level of the six companies part of the Romanian Petroleum Association (ARP), in the first six months of 2009 fuel retail sales are similar with those registered in the similar period of last year. In 2009, the networks of the six companies part of ARP expanded by 7%," say the representatives of ARP including Petrom, Rompetrol Downstream, Lukoil Romania, MOL Romania, OMV Romania and Agip Romania. Thus, one of the factors that somewhat sustained the fall in sales on the retail segment was the expansion of filling station chains owned by major players.
Besides this, there was another factor that proved to be favourable for retail sales of fuel, a sales segment mainly represented by individuals not owning cards issued by petroleum firms and making cash payments.
"The market structure is changing dramatically. Many small companies have seen their accounts being frozen and thus rendered unable to pay by card. Thus, they shifted to the retail segment where they continued payments, but this time with cash. Practically, we have a migration of corporate consumption to retail because of the economic situation and this is completely unhealthy," explains Zsolt Szalay, country chairman with MOL Romania, ranking fourth on the market in terms of the filling station network.
Decreases were registered on the corporate client segment and ranged between 10 and 20% in the first half of 2009 against the corresponding period of 2008. Taking into account these trends, fuel volumes dropped on average by 3% at a market level in the first six months.
Projections regarding the trend of sales by yearend are no longer as downbeat, either.
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