The most important trends for 2008 across various sectors as anticipated at the start of the year. The banks and insurance field sees a hectic start of the year for the RON, as analysts forecast up to 3.65 - 3.70 RON/EUR rate. Things are expected to calm down in the second half of 2008, and the end of the year may bring the exchange rate back down to 3.25-3.4 RON/EUR.
Retail remains king here. BCR after its first year of restructuring and UniCredit Tiriac ready to get to cruise speed might increase pressure on the retail lending market, which will progress significantly in 2008, too. This year may come with the first signs of trouble for small players, which is partly up to the foreign developments that could lead to new price hikes for funding sources.
As far as newcomers are concerned, Royal Bank of Scotland could enter the market by keeping the operations of the current ABN Amro Bank turned into a branch on January 1. Spanish banks continue to test the waters looking for opportunities. The list of new branches opened by European banks in Bucharest will continue to grow, as will that of players interested to provide services from their own countries of origin directly.
Insurers might be focusing on profit this year, after the major players posted losses or significant declines in income in the first nine months of 2007. This means they will continue to raise rates for comprehensive and auto liability insurance policies.
Private pension funds will collect about 300 million euros this year, with the initial campaign to join a fund set to end on January 17, after which the players on the market will file the last reports.
The capital market will see more and more companies float, as more and more private companies are starting to see the Stock Exchange as a source of cash.
This could bring a higher number of floatations compared with the previous years. The first international floatation on the Bucharest Stock Exchange is due to happen this year, with Austria's Erste Bank group having almost completed the necessary steps in this regard.
The greater influence the foreign markets have on the developments on the Romanian market will affect the start of the year on BSE. The uncertainty on international markets will induce high volatility with no definite trend.
At the same time brokers anticipate the shares of the smaller companies on the BSE and RASDAQ will continue to generate high yields, though increases will be more and more in line with the financial results reported.
On the energy front, Nuclearelectrica's listing is one of the most eagerly awaited on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, after it had all its debts struck off last year. Transelectrica could put another 10% on the BSE this year.
Most petroleum companies see the barrel much more expensive this year, with Rompetrol providing the highest estimate, 150 dollars. Petroleum has already crossed the 100-dollar psychological threshold.
Moving on to real estate and constructions, the year 2008 will see almost 20 malls delivered throughout the country, three of which to be opened in Bucharest.
Their number will double considering the current stock consists of 20 such centres. At the same time, more than 40 residential projects in Bucharest and in the surrounding areas will put 8,000 homes on the market, a record for the capital city. Small and medium-sized investment funds could exit the market to cash in on their profits.
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