Romania is to enter the euro zone in 2019 at the earliest, fouryears later than the official target and behind some countries suchas Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. The countrywill enter the ERM II in 2017, shows a report by Italy's UniCreditgroup.
The National Bank has maintained its euro adoption target forJanuary 1, 2015, but governor Mugur Is`rescu has repeatedly saidthe adoption calendar needs to be reviewed amid economictrends.
"In setting the euro area integration date, we also took intoconsideration the following factors. Firstly, though this is notstipulated among the Maastricht criteria, we believe states willhave to keep their budgetary gap below the 3% of GDP limit for atleast three years before entering the ERM II," write UniCreditanalysts. According to the adjustment calendar negotiated with theEC and IMF, Romania should bring its budgetary gap below this limitin 2012.
"Secondly, besides the Maastricht criteria, we believe any statewill not be able to enter the ERM before having entirely repaid itsIMF or EC loans," UniCredit analysts also say. Romania shouldcomplete the repayment in 2016.
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
