The total value of the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE), which includes the RASDAQ market, fell by 7 billion euros in January to the level reached at the end of 2006, 24.5 billion euros.
The BET index, which gauges the performance of the top ten companies on the BSE, last month lost 23%, after having gained 22% last year, while the SIF index - BET-FI, lost 20% and fell below the level at the end of 2006.
The declines had a severe impact on mutual funds that mainly invest in shares, after some lost more than they gained in 2007.
Foreign investment funds that have withdrawn significant amounts of money from emerging capital markets over the past month are considered the main cause for the declines in January.
Worst hit by the correction, however, were the small local investors that started investing on the Stock Exchange last year and bought shares whose values were close to the June and July highs; they subsequently lost as much as over 30-40% in some cases.
"The big losers of the Stock Exchange slump of the past few months have been the Romanian investors. Some local brokers are in part to blame for this because they either were slow to see where international markets were going, or gave poor information to their clients and failed to provide clear advice when the crisis was looming," Mircea Lamurean, an experienced Stock Exchange investor, with a portfolio of about 1.5 million euros, told ZIARUL FINANCIAR.
He says he lost around 18% of the value of his portfolio in January, but has faith a rebound will happen on the market by yearend.
"At first, there were moments when I lost confidence and prepared an exit strategy to cut my losses, but there was no need for that. In my opinion, the crisis is over, and after two or three more weeks during which we may see some declines, I believe the market will start to gradually increase and foreign investors, which set the trend of the market, will gradually return. I expect the market to increase by 40% or 50% above the current level by the end of the year," Lamurean added.
Brokers and mutual fund managers feel almost the same, and believe that the market will bounce back by yearend.
"I believe that by the end of the year the Stock Exchange will bounce back from the losses registered at the beginning of the year, and I forecast a rebound for the second half. Moreover, I expect to see some IPOs during this period, and investors investing more in other shares, besides these capital injections," believes Mihai Chisu, IFB Finwest broker.
"The market no longer shows the potential for decline. Current figures contain all the negative scenarios and bearish expectations of financial analysts. All the bad news is already included in the current prices," believes Radu Hanga, general manager of BT Asset Management.
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