The investors on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) are, without having won the Lottery, some of the happiest Romanians around, as, after the trading sessions this week, the market sees 30% growth compared with the beginning of the year.
The trend has long exceeded the expectations of even the most bullish analysts, who had anticipated a 30% yield for the entire 2004.
"This is a state of euphoria induced precisely by the growth that has taken place since the beginning of the year. Investors are afraid to sell for fear they might miss further increases. The sell orders are therefore very few and buyers are usually forced to up prices, " says Rares Nilas, general manager of BT Securities, Banca Transilvania's brokerage firm.
As a result of the rise in quotes, BSE's capitalisation went up 1 billion dollars in seven weeks, reaching $4.7 billion.
The shares that spurred the growth this year were, as usual, Banca Romana pentru Dezvoltare (Romanian Development Bank - BRD), the Financial Investment Companies (SIFs) and Banca Transilvana. Petrom has been a bit livelier in the past couple of weeks, too, although privatisation has come to a standstill.
BRD has climbed nearly 40% since the beginning of the year, while Banca Transilvania stock gained 27%. SIFs progressed by 20% on the average, while Petrom went up 16%.
Besides the "classics", several shares not usually chosen by players, such as Siretul Pascani, Compa Sibiu or Rolast Pitesti, have already yielded over 50%.
The quotes began their way up in January, when foreign investors started buying. Their acquisitions, which drove prices up due to the lack of liquidity, were followed by the speculations of the Romanian players.
Part of the brokers say the euphoria was generated by the upcoming dividend payment, and many investors are not thinking any further than that.
"Investors have been thinking about dividends lately, without taking other issues into account; they have concluded that if the market has grown it can continue to do so," Grigore Chis, SSIF Broker (Cluj) commented.
The increases have enabled almost every "star" stock to reach quotes analysts deem as unrealistic compared with the value of the respective companies. Petrom, for instance, has come to a $2bn market capitalisation, although international specialists appraised it at $1.2-$1.5bn in view of privatisation.
BRD's market capitalisation reaches $1.2bn and a quote/profit per share ratio of 15, which is considered high on any market of this world.
"The prices of the shares on the Stock Exchange have come very close to the right value, and some have even surpassed that. The latter is the case of the two banks and of Petrom," Adriana Marin, BRD Securities chief analyst says.
laurentiu.ispir@zf.ro ; vlad.nicolaescu@zf.ro
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
