"Growth percentages have been repositioned. We are no longer anticipating 7.5 percent growth for next year, the NBR forecasts 4.5 percent. Yet it is growth, which means we will not see many layoffs. Moreover, we have a labour shortage that can offset the layoffs from other sectors. There is no reason to panic," Campeanu says, adding that part of the negative effects of the financial crisis have been overcome, but the crisis is just beginning.
The minister says that Romania has been through a long transition during which it faced issues that an economic crisis can cause. "Institutionally, we are prepared to deal with higher unemployment than before."
Unemployment could be higher than this year, when it reached 3.9 percent, though not significantly higher, at least not in the first half of next year.
The Minister believes that a debate should be started in terms of a greater flexibility of the conditions on the labour market, so as to allow companies to hire people for shorter periods of time, when they are on the rise and then make their employees redundant in case the business is slower. "The current conditions in the labour legislation are very restrictive. The future government should start a debate on what is going on the labour market and how the Labour Code could be modified because we have no time left to discuss such an important topic now. In times of recession, any job for whatever period is welcome".
As for the debate on the teachers' salaries, Campeanu says that no country in the world can grant 50 percent pay rises when the economy only grew by 9 percent, labour productivity by 13-14 percent and inflation stood within reasonable limits. "What was a real problem with teachers' salaries has turned into 'national hysteria'. Things can get out of control with disastrous effects for the economy and it is a shame that after a four-year effort during which the highest economic growth and the most spectacular increase of GDP were achieved, and after several years' economic growth under other governments, we should destroy everything because of a lack of understanding of the situation. I mean the economic crisis here and the manner in which a budget is managed."
Campeanu says that if the future government will make raising salaries a priority, it will build the budget in such a way as to allow a 50 percent increase in teachers' salaries as of April 1. "There is no money and there won't be any next year, either. As far as the 2009 budget is concerned, we did not take into account these raises but set this time limit for the new Government, whose priorities may be different. On the other hand, we cannot burden the next government with such an expense that would lead to a massive decline in investments."
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