The National Bank has room to cut its key interest rate towards6% or even further if no pressures emerge for the depreciation ofthe RON or unexpected rises in controlled prices and in fuelprices, believe bankers and analysts.
However, the impact of the interest rate cut will be reflected onthe market only gradually, with banks already late in reacting toprevious monetary policy decisions, especially in the context wherethe price of loans granted also includes the increasingly high costof non-performing loans.
"I think the monetary policy relaxation trend will continue in thecoming period, as well, as long as the inflation target is notunder threat," says Sergiu Oprescu, president of Alpha Bank, thefourth largest bank on the Romanian market in terms of assets. Heexpects the monetary policy signals to be reflected gradually inthe real economy, like it happened in the past, first on deposits,and then on loans.
Analysts, however, believe the cheapening of loans will give abreath of fresh air to healthy companies.
"There will be a positive effect, the economy will be stimulatedbecause at least companies with viable projects will be encouragedto take out loans in order to develop them (...)," says Mihai Ion,president of Raiffeisen Asset Management.
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