In November 2008 exports went into negative territory for thefirst time in five years. In November 2009, they rebounded.
The volume of sales on foreign markets in November peaked at2.74bn euros, according to National Statistics Institute (INS)preliminary data, the highest level of the past 12 months,announcing economic recovery. Exports account for around 30% in GDPand are tightly connected to the industrial sector that employsmore than two million Romanians.
For the first time in 2009, the volume of exports went up, by 7%from the same month of 2008. The increase offset the loss posted inNovember 2008, thus reaching a level equivalent to that of November2007.
"We're starting to make comparisons against a low base, againstthe worst period of the Romanian crisis, which may be making usmore optimistic. But we mustn't delude ourselves by makingcomparisons against the lowest level of the Romanian economy," saysFlorin Pogonaru, chairman of the Association of Businesspeople inRomania (AOAR).
The November increase comes after many months that broughttwo-digit declines. In the first 11 months of the year, the volumeof exports posted an overall decrease of 16% from the same periodof 2008, to 26.7bn euros.
As a rule, the last two months of a year bring an increase inexports, as this is the time when commercial contracts fall due andcommodities are delivered on foreign markets.
"Foreign trade activity is the first that signals the exit fromthe crisis, being the direct contact of the Romanian economy withglobal economies. Romanian producers are trying to save themselvesthrough exports as they can no longer count on domestic marketdemand, dented by the falling purchasing power," Valentin Brebenel,foreign trade adviser with the Economy, Trade and BusinessEnvironment Ministry, told ZF.
However, imports are still way below last year's level. Thevolume of imports in November reached 3.5bn euros, down 18% fromNovember 2008. In the first 11 months, imports stood at 35.4bneuros, down 34% from a year ago, showing a still low level ofdomestic consumption.
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