The war has started. Yesterday morning, the Romanians woke up to the images of the first American missiles hitting the Iraqi capital. Last night, the news flashes had announced an imminent attack of the US-led coalition against Iraq. Today was a day of first reactions, from the categorical statements of China, which called for a cease-fire, to the somewhat resigned comments of the European states, which had initially opposed the conflict. The war has forced the Turkish MPs to grant air access to the American planes and to send troops in northern Iraq.
Paradoxically, the international markets were not very jumpy, as if the long, tense period that preceded the hostilities has made everyone tired. Certainly, some markets posted decreases, as the U.S. stock exchange did this morning. The European markets bounced back after the initial shock, while the Asian markets closed the day on an increasing trend. The brokers have not resorted to the concrete values, yet, which entailed only a slight increase in the gold prices. Oil, the potential stake of this war, hit a three-month low and stayed there for most of the day. It was already evening when oil prices increased in New York, for the first time in the past week, as new information pointed to the Iraqi oil wells having allegedly been set on fire by the army of Saddam Hussein.
Still, the effects of the war are not over before the actual battles have begun, as one might think after the first day. There will be effects and everybody will feel them.
Romanian businessmen estimate that the effects of the Iraqi war upon the economy are mainly connected to its duration. A long war would harm commercial ties with the Middle East and Far East countries. Moreover, the Iraqi crisis will weigh heavily on the fuel prices.
A lengthy war in Iraq would endanger $3bn contracts that Romanian exporters and importers have concluded with the Middle East states, Mihai Ionescu, president of the National Association of Romanian Exporters and Importers (ANEIR) told Ziarul Financiar.
"Last year's export and import contracts with the countries from the war area - Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, etc - amounted to some two billion dollars. Should the conflict last, all these contracts would be endangered," Ionescu stated. He added the war may even affect the Romanian companies' ties with the Far East partners.
dorin.oancea@zf.ro ; miruna.lebedencu@zf.ro
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