This year begins under the sign of fear, but there are chancesthe yearend should mark an economic rebound.
The year that lies ahead will be as intricate as 2009 inunravelling its trends. Still, one can definitely spell out thebiggest concerns and the biggest hopes of the businessenvironment.
At the start of last year, Ziarul Financiar called 2009 the yearof uncertainty. Big questions were arising in January 2009 and weare now wondering why these were dilemmas: Will we have economicgrowth? Will lending freeze? Will exports fall? But considering thewhirl had already started in October-November 2008, did we think wecould go unscathed? Now, the foreign storm has passed, but growthremains uncertain. For Romania, Ziarul Financiar states 2010 willbe the year of fears, but also of hopes. People are afraid oflosing their jobs, companies fear they may not be able to survive.But the outlook is not as gloomy as it was six or eight months ago.Some good news may be in the offing: exports may resume growth,interest rates may go down, the stock exchange may rise, Europeanfunds may be better absorbed.
Among the biggest fears:
1. The impossibility of the population and companies to paytheir debts to banks and other suppliers.
2. The exchange rate rising to 4.5-4.7 RON would be the worstnews both for the population and for companies, especially indebtedin euros.
3. Job losses, particularly in the budgetary sector, after theprivate sector made hundreds of thousand people redundant.
Among the hopes:
1. An export rally based on a rebound of Western Europeaneconomies, providing a boost to the car, furniture or textileindustries.
2. A still high level of Dacia exports driven by WesternEuropean orders.
3. Ford production picking up speed and becoming important inRomania's exports.
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