The year 2010 will be a year of financial investments, withpossibilities to diversify assets on various segments that willfollow interesting trends and a RON/EUR exchange rate that mightfluctuate between the current level and 4 RON/EUR, "with potentialforays below this threshold," anticipates Claudiu Cercel,BRD-SocGen's vice-president for financial markets.
"The capital market will continue to provide opportunities withtwo-digit yields, even though lower than in 2009, banking interestswill remain interesting, despite being only one-digit and gold willbe an interesting investment by far, not necessarily for treasuringit. On the forex market, the RON will have a higher potential forstrengthening rather than decline, and the exchange rate may godown lower than 4 RON/EUR," Cercel says.
BRD's head of financial markets expects the assets of mutualfunds to overshoot the 1 billion-euro mark this year, coming closeto 1% of GDP, which other countries in the region overshot a longtime ago.
He believes the RON interest decline trend will consolidate,considering there still is a high "premium" over the inflationaryrate, and the appreciation of the RON will help curb inflation aslong as there is no fundamental demand in the economy that shouldgenerate pressures for an increase in prices.
"The market is very liquid now, considering businessopportunities in real economy are yet to show. At the same time, wehave to be careful so as not to drive a too abrupt appreciation ofthe RON, because the pendulum-like motion is dangerous." Cerceldoes not see any risks of speculative attack "at all" in terms ofRON depreciation, but says, "a similar move can be used to drivethe appreciation of the RON." He notes that all foreign analysessee the RON appreciating.
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