The stagnation in price of food and services, the low share ofpetrol in the consumer basket, as well as the temporary positiveeffect of the increase in the price of fuels are arguments infavour of continuing the disinflation process, say analysts.
Fuels saw their price rise by 5.3% in the first quarter of theyear, while consumer prices in the economy rose by an overall 2.1%in the first three months of 2010.
This is the second-highest rise recorded by a group of products,with the exception of tobacco and cigarettes, which saw a 15% pricerise. Petrol pump prices rose from 3.71 to 4.33 RON per litre sincethe end of last year, whilst the price of premium petrol crossedthe 5 RON/litre threshold.
However, annual inflation was lower in the last two months,tempered by the stagnation of food prices, which account for 37% ofthe consumer basket used for calculating the price index. Fuelsmake up 7.5% of Romanians' consumer basket. This means that aRomanian's 1,370-RON average net salary is spent as follows: 507RON on food and 103 RON on petrol.
"I don't think the rise in the price of fuels will have adestabilising effect on this year's inflation target. Although theprice of oil has probably exceeded the upper band for the inflationforecast, it may only be a temporary rise (...)," saysmacroeconomics analyst Laurian Lungu.
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