The ROL exchange rate against the single European currency climbed above the 40,000 level yesterday, as the Bucharest forex market was in sync with the foreign markets, where the euro soared to a record-high against the US currency: 1.1978 USD for one euro.
The National Bank of Romania calculated an exchange rate of 40,041 ROL for one euro, up 152 units since the previous session, the highest level ever recorded in the history of the ROL/EUR exchange rate.
At the same time, the US dollar's depreciation against the European currency also made it lose ground against the ROL, as the exchange rate calculated by the central bank dropped 325 ROL, down to 33,591 ROL/USD. Since the beginning of November, the ROL has lost 600 units to the European currency, although this trend was slowed down by the central bank, which sold euros on the forex market several times.
The central bank has worked hard to keep the euro below the 40,000 ROL threshold in the past few weeks, even selling 60-70 million euros several days ago, to help the domestic currency. Moreover, the National Bank allegedly has more than 300 million euros at hand, to channel the ROL/EUR exchange rate towards acceptable levels. A strong European currency may have a negative impact upon inflation (especially at yearend when prices generally grow) and upon those that are paying back loans in euros. Increasingly more loans have been granted in euros instead of dollars. Whereas euro-denominated credits accounted for 31.06% of the total financing at the end of last year and 41.29% were USD loans, the euro had climbed to 37.06% at the end of September 2003, whereas the dollar had dropped to 32.61%.
The domestic currency has lost 14.67% to the euro this year and 0.27% to the US dollar. At any rate, irrespective of the central bank's plans and goals, it is eventually up to the evolution of the EUR/USD exchange rate on the international markets. So far, this evolution has been highly controversial this year.
Fears that the US Administration may be ready to use trade barriers to support the America economy and jobs upset the international markets yesterday, sending the dollar to a record low against the euro.
The US currency also dived to three-year lows against the yen after the United States said it would limit Chinese textile imports, extending restrictions which are already under fire. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar fell as far as 107.58 yen, a three-year low, but it recovered on expectations Japanese authorities could intervene.
oana.nuta@zf.ro ; gabriel.taranu@zf.ro
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