One month before the end of the year, inflation has come to 12.8%, which makes it possible for the Government's 14.5% annual target to be attained, after all. Even more, a 1.1% December rate would pave the way for the 14% inflation target set by the Government and the National Bank of Romania.
In November, the inflation rate was 1.4%, down from October's 1.5%, with the consumption price index growth mainly fuelled by raising prices for foodstuffs (2.1%) - eggs, bread, milk - and for natural gas, telephone and postal services.
As compared to December 2002, prices for foodstuffs and services included in the basket monitored by the National Statistics Institute have climbed 13.7% each, whereas food prices went up 11.7%.
The inflation rate dropped to 14.5% as compared to last November, down from the 15.9% logged between September 2002 - September 2003. The National Bank expects inflationist pressures to subside by next February, after the 2.1% peak in September, and has thus waived another raise of the intervention rate. The authorities are trying to convince the market that next year will bring a single-digit inflation rate, but scepticism remains. Under the circumstances, rates should resume the descending trend next spring, as the market's inflation expectations will go down.
It is not clear yet whether the Government will commit to enforce all the price increases for utilities that the International Monetary Fund has requested. These raises could lead to surging inflation in 2004, such as the September peak, when inflation soared to a record high of 2.1%, after the 0.3% attained in August. razvan.voican@zf.ro
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