Europe will have to realise in 2001 that its former communist countries have developed into two distinct regions: Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia, give or take Croatia and the Baltics) and Eastern Europe, the Economist predicts.
A new border, named the Belgian curtain for the country which hosts the European Union, will span from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, being imposed from the West. Central European countries, together with Romania and Bulgaria, will impose visas on the citizens of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.
Those three East European countries will have a risible year, although Belarus may oust its authoritarian regime, the above-quoted source forecasts.
Not one will push through reforms necessary to begin mending their economies, hit by crises and corruption, while certain rural areas may be affected by famine, if drought persists.
According to The Economist, Romania is on the right side of the Belgian curtain, just about, but 2001 will be a testing year. A disciplined Romania would have great potential, but then discipline has never been a Romanian strong point, the magazine says.
"A return of the populist Ion Iliescu for another stint in the presidency, and success for his centre-left party in parliamentary elections, could undo attempts of more sober technocrats to keep down wages and shut down loss-making state industries," The Economist states.
Inflation and the current account deficit will remain high, but the Romanian economy is expected to grow by 3% due to booming exports. Bulgaria, "Romania's smaller and less flamboyant neighbour to the south," should grow at about the same rate, the publication maintains.
It will also attract more foreign investment but not enough to offset high unemployment. "Nor will demoralised Bulgarians match Romanians for civic participation or entrepreneurial spirit," The Economist maintains.
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