The Romanian state is starting the year with a lot of cash onits hands, i.e. 900 million euros from the IMF and another 2.5billion euros set to come from the EU and the World Bank, while inthe real economy private companies continue to make peopleredundant, close businesses and file for insolvency.
As a result, a growing discrepancy emerges between the abundanceof cash in the coffers of the NBR (National Bank of Romania), ofthe state, and of the financial market on one hand, and the privatesector on the other, which has been deprived of cash and orders fortoo long, and is unable to recover from the successive shocks itexperienced last year.
Banks ended up stifled under the tens of billions of RONlanguishing on the market, with ROBOR interest rates freefalling inthe first week of the year, while lending shows no sign of arebound, with this money surplus failing to be directed towards theeconomy. In addition, the signal that the IMF gave external marketsthrough the release of a new tranche reinforces the trend of RONstrengthening and the Stock Exchange rise in the first week of theyear, caught up in the illusion generated by the upcoming flotationof Fondul Proprietatea. Once again Romania risks to fall into thetrap of believing what the "mirror" of financial markets says,which has no connection to the wave of insolvencies in the realeconomy.
However, even though the government has made efforts to repay someof its debts to the private sector under pressure from the IMF, formany companies it is already too late, especially if their banksran out of patience.
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