The takeover of SNP Petrom, the largest company on the Romanian market, is seen as the "key acquisition" for the consolidation of the oil market in the Central and Eastern Europe by the analysts of Austrian Erste Bank, which is actively involved in the region.
The bank's CEE Sector Report quoted by Russian Interfax news agency says Erste does not believe MOL will win alone, but could be successful if it teams up with other investors.
"MOL's advantages are that it has already almost fully closed one acquisition (Slovakia's Slovnaft) and won in the battle for Croatia's INA. The company is well poised to win other privatisation deals, such as Czech firm Unipetrol. In Romania, however, Erste does not believe MOL will win alone. In a consortium with other investors, however, it could reach its goal," the report shows.
Erste's analysts explain that although MOL is intent on acquiring Petrom, its chances are poorer due to the expected political overtones of the deal
At present, analysts estimate the takeover of 51% in Petrom to be worth $1-$1.4bn by analysts.
The other important deal in this regional consolidation process will be the sale of Czech Unipetrol Company, scheduled for the first quarter in 2004.
As Erste Bank says, MOL stands the best chances of becoming the sector's leading consolidator, although the race is far from decided, and PKN (Poland) and OMV (Austria) could also take the lead. The three companies register a quite similar market capitalisation, actually. OMV's reaches about 3bn euros, while MOL's and PKN's 2.5bn euros. Petrom's is 50% lower, 1.4bn euros.
The bank's analysts feel there is a good chance that a strong Central European oil corporation will emerge in the next 2 or 3 years. This company is likely to be acquired by a Russian or multinational oil giant. However, with a market capitalisation of over $10 billion, it could even remain independent.
On the planned talks for co-operation between MOL and PKN, Erste foresees a less than 50% chance for a deal to be struck in the coming months.
adrian.mirsanu@zf.ro
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