Local analysts say the series of increases has not ended yet, and the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) will witness further growth next year.
They believe that even though some foreign brokers have come to consider Romanian shares could soon see their significant growth achieved in anticipation of Romania's EU accession come to an end.
The explanation? Not so much the fundamental data of listed companies, showing most of the major shares on the market are evaluated close to accurate prices, as the new money that will enter the market from the foreign investment funds.
"It's true that growth related to integration has largely been registered, but I don't expect any adjustment for next year.
"There are many investment funds that will enter Romania due to integration and they should sustain further price hikes for the Romanian Stock Exchange. However, everything depends on the number of new issuers because, otherwise, the expensive shares will swell even further," specified Adriana Marin, head of the research department of CA IB Securities.
According to her, "theoretically, the Stock Exchange should gain at least 25-30%" given the new money to enter the market, with SIFs most likely to post such growth.
This year, SIFs have surged by some 30%, while the BET advanced by around 26%.
The Stock Exchange in late September resumed its strong growth trend, with brokers and some of the investment fund managers on the market counting on a surge in foreign capital entering the market next year.
Dana Mirela-Ionescu, chairperson of Raiffeisen Capital & Investment, says she does not agree that Romanian shares will soon stop growing; however, the inflow of foreign capital expected on the Bucharest Stock Exchange next year will not be high.
Mirela Ionescu expects SIFs to post growth above the market rate next year again, with an advance of "at least 20-30%," while the BET increase will be "lower".
"Everything comes down to the share price. If this can be sustained on the basis of fundamental research, I do not see why growth should stop. Romania's outlook is extremely positive starting from integration and investors' expectations are high from this perspective," stated Rares Nilas, manager of BT Securities brokerage firm. He forecasts a 15% minimal increase for SIFs and the BET for next year.
Analysts say the new institutional investors entering the market will first focus on the same major shares, even though many of these are overvalued, while investment funds already on the market will start placing greater emphasis on small and medium-sized companies on the Stock Exchange.
Whether the Stock Exchange starts next year with an adjustment or not is really up to whether the market suffers some significant adjustment by yearend, says Adrian Manaila, manager with Eldainvest brokerage.
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