Stockholm's impeccably timed hostile bid to grab the London Stock Exchange from Deutsche Boerse's arms could well unravel the planned Anglo-German tryst less than three weeks before it stands before the altar, analysts said.
The Stockholm Stock Exchange, the first bourse in the world to float, now becomes the first to launch a hostile bid for a rival, and one several times its size.
The stakes are high, and time is running short to offer the best platform for investors to trade across Europe where a single capital market is emerging in equities and set to grow dramatically over coming years.
The need for a nationally focused exchange is rapidly fading, and even the ultimate regional winners in Europe must forge global pacts.
"People think the Stockholm Exchange is a very serious organisation," said Nic Stuchfield, a UK stock market veteran and industry consultant.
The LSE said on Friday it had rejected the 800 million pound ($1.18 billion) approach from OM Gruppen, which owns the Stockholm Exchange.
OM had offered LSE shareholders 20 pounds ($29.50) in new OM shares and seven pounds in cash for each LSE share - a total of 27 pounds per share. LSE shares last traded at 23.5 pounds on Friday.
The LSE said the offer was rejected because it is "significantly less attractive" than the iX merger.
Pressure for LSE vote delay grows
Stockholm's David versus Goliath move throws a spanner in the iX works, carefully timed as criticism of the iX project is reaching fever pitch.
Britain's smaller stockbrokers, grouped under the Apcims umbrella, which accounts for about one third of LSE shareholders, and also in an ad hoc lobby group, want the September vote to be delayed until issues like regulation, trading systems and clearing and settlement are clarified.
The iX business model simply does not stand up to scrutiny, they say.
However, the LSE and Deutsche Boerse were hoping to inject fresh momentum into their marriage next Thursday when UK settler Crest and its German counterpart Clearstream spell out how iX users will save money compared to the expensive cross-border trading costs at present.
London has resolutely rejected all calls to delay a vote due on September 14 when shareholders decide whether to merge with the Frankfurt based exchange to create Europe's biggest bourse and the world's third largest.
The pressure to delay the vote may now become intolerable - the vote was already a close call even before Stockholm's audacious step became known.
"This reinforces the need for a delay in the vote so that the shareholders can decide the best way forward for the London Stock Exchange," Angela Knight, Apcims chief executive, said.
Would Nasdaq stand idly by?
The LSE must have a 75 percent majority for the merger to go through. The Boerse shareholder vote, which takes place on the same day, is widely seen as in the bag.
"I can't believe that 75 percent would vote for iX anyway, and I find it difficult to believe that 20 to 30 percent of voters would not change their allegiance to get 27 pounds in the hand," one securities industry source said.
Stockholm has much going for it - it is fully demutualised, it has a widely respected technology in its SAX 2000 trading platform and the business model of its Jiway Internet-based stock exchange, due to launch in November, has impressed many.
If September's vote does get delayed or goes ahead and fails, the bets are on among market observers that it won't be long before the Nasdaq is forced to make a move too.
The Nasdaq intends to create a growth stock market in Frankfurt with iX if the Anglo-German merger goes ahead.
Industry consultants said this week that if the LSE's vote in September failed to win a majority, Nasdaq would be an attractive alternative for London. Few see the world's second largest exchange standing idly by if Stockholm presses ahead with its hostile bid for London.
Euronext, the planned merger of bourses in Paris, Amsterdam and Brussels, would also likely enter the fray again to lure London on its side.
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