Trade deficit, that is the gap between imports and exports, reached $1.2bn over the first four months, three times higher than in the same time last year, when it reached $437 million.
Should the same growth pace maintain throughout the entire year, the deficit would reach $7.5bn, compared with $2.6bn last year, but analysts say this trend is unlikely to maintain.
"It is obviously a current account-related problem, but there is no way this amount could be reached. The problem will be solved either by cutting import funding, or by curbing fiscal deficit," says Dragos Negrescu, economic analyst.
The exports growth pace in the first four months reached only 18%, compared with 36% for imports, which is practically double. When dollar outstrips inflation, exporters make more money and therefore the volume of commodities exported increases, as it happened in 2000, when exports rose 28%.
The situation is reversed now, given that inflation outstripped ROL's depreciation against the USD, so that imports increased much faster than the exports.
"The central bank is now monitoring both the inflation and the trade deficit by means of the same tool (i.e. the exchange rate)," Negrescu explains.
According to NBR Governor Mugur Isarescu's recent statements, inflation will be the main target, therefore the exchange rate will be kept on a tight leash. The lack of financing, though, will put increased pressure on the exchange rate.
Negrescu is not worried about this trade deficit trend, "as long as there is a growth pace for exports and for the entire economy. A decrease in exports or the economy correlated with an increase in deficit would have been a more serious problem. Furthermore, the trade deficit is relative, as long as there is funding. There are neighbouring countries doing very well with deficits that account for higher GDP shares than ours."
Romania at the end of 2000 registered some 7.5% of GDP in negative balance, while Poland's balance reached $17bn, that is nearly 11% of GDP.
The imports of machinery, equipment and mechanical devices account for nearly 23% of the total volume of imports during the analysed period. The value of imports of such products reached $1.13bn, up 35.7% compared with the same time last year.
All in all, Romania in the first four months imported $4.97bn's worth in commodities, that is 37% more than in the same time in 2000.
Exports maintained their upward trend, reaching $3.7bn in the first four months, that is some $510 million more than last year. Nearly a quarter of the total commodities exported came from clothing factories, as well as from textile mills.
The value of the exports of the above-mentioned products amounted to $921 million, up 18.5% against the year-ago period. Also an increase, namely 60%, was registered by exports of machinery and mechanical devices and of electrical machinery and equipment respectively, which accounted for 16.3%.
The current account deficit of the payment balance in Q1 soared to 455 million dollars, as compared to 89 million dollars over the same period of last year. This evolution was triggered by the "outburst" of the trade deficit, which amounted to 536 million dollars after the first three months of the year.
The medium- and long-term foreign debt went up 0.5% in this period, up to 9,903 million dollars, while the short-term debt increased by 1.9%, to 368 million dollars.
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