This is a question many are attempting to answer, or at least trying to confirm the theory that Mugur Isarescu is the new leader in Romania. A political leader, because an economic leader he has already proved to be.
The idea that there has to be something underneath this visit, or that America wanted to send a message with this visit, is the starting point in asking this question. There were six days in the US, during which Isarescu held meetings at the highest level, as a Prime Minister. He made his way to the most important executive economic leaders in America - Fed chairman Alan Greenspan and Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence Summers, the primary figures of the United States economic policy.
Asked why he went to the USA, the Premier answered he wanted to assure American officials that Romania was a natural ally in the Balkan area, which can be relied on politically and economically.
He has said everywhere that reform will continue in this election year, although it would mean unpopular measures that will affect parties in the ruling coalition and make them waste electoral capital.
Balkan countries are probably racing today to become a USA darling, the country that best supports American interests in the region and therefore gets financial and political support. The stakes are high, because this influences a nation for many years ahead.
Perhaps the most interesting issue Isarescu discussed was his own vision on resolving the situation in Yugoslavia, and, why not, on dampening potential conflicts in the Balkans, which could erupt at any time. Conflicts breed on poverty, therefore this is a problem of extreme importance, because it can show how good life can be in a democracy, in a market economy. As long as the two countries that frame Yugoslavia - Romania and Bulgaria - have not made a display of better living standards, Slobodan Milosevic has a good reason to say that NATO, the European Union or democracy are nothing good. Romania and Bulgaria are the most classical examples. Isarescu has invited the Americans to invest and financially support the area, otherwise there would be no end to the conflicts. They will probably never cease, but if people fare better, they will be more reluctant to pull the gun, aware of what they stand to lose.
What did Isarescu get? At first sight, congratulations, handshakes, assurances, promises, projects. It is important that Secretary of State Madeleine Albright "congratulated" him in advance for signing the IMF accord, whereas the IMF board is only to meet on May 31. Romania thus received the political support for the accord from the Fund's largest stakeholder. IMF chairman Horst Koehler has launched the most positive message to Romania in the last year. One of the executive directors, Michael Depler, who is extremely reserved about Romania, mindful of all the accords that failed through, delivered the best message, saying Romania would not default. It doesn't get any better than this.
Then there is the question of what the USA wanted to convey to Isarescu. To his very person. The first answer is that the USA trusts him and that it supports him in front of the government. The US knows too well that if the economic programme is continued, it will lose votes for the coalition. It is not a populist programme, on the contrary. And the votes will certainly go to the other parties. To see this programme bear any fruit in people's standard of living, a few years will have to pass. Then, assurances and support have come to Isarescu personally. Coalition parties matter too little. And their leaders too. What matters is the future.
Unexpectedly, Isarescu has become a politician. Although he says he is "not yet a political man," he is already regarded as such. At least in the United States. He is the newest figure on the Romanian political stage, and can be a good alternative to what is on offer now. The fact that he already is a political man, although without a party, is seen in the coalition parties' reactions. Isarescu has become a real threat to the domestic leaders. The Democratic Party is already seeing him as such, and Traian Basescu's backlash proves it.
What will happen next will "tell" us why Isarescu went to the USA and what assurances he received there.
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