Analysts believe there are few chances that the economy willperform better in the third quarter against the last three monthsof last year, with a modest growth being possible as a result ofthe robust export growth, the reversal of public sector salary cutsand the slight growth in the consumer spending in the firstquarter.
In the last quarter of 2010 the economy grew 0.1% against thepreceding quarter, above the expectations of analysts, who hadanticipated a decline. The economy went into recession in the thirdquarter of 2008, and since the autumn of 2008 the GDP recordeddeclines in every quarter, but for the slight growth, of 0.1% inthe third quarter of 2009, in the second quarter of 2010 and in thefourth quarter of 2010.
"I believe there are few chances the economy will perform better inthe first quarter of 2011 than in the last quarter of 2010, becauseinfrastructure investments will start at best in the second if notin the third quarter, as a result of unfavourable weatherconditions in the first quarter and the time needed at thebeginning of each year for planning infrastructure works accordingto the allocated budget and to government priorities," commentedMelania Hancila, chief economist of Volksbank.
Nicolaie Chidesciuc, chief economist of ING Bank, says positiveeconomic growth in the first quarter of 2011 does not mean we areout of recession in the first quarter of 2011.
"There is no clear definition of entry into recession and of exitfrom recession. If we record economic growth in the first quarterof 2011 and in the next quarters, and the figure for the fourthquarter of 2010 is not revised to a decline, we can say we were outof recession at the end of the third quarter of 2010."
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