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It's just a matter of time before euro is worth 4 lei, say analysts

Autor: Liviu Chiru

24.03.2011, 23:48 13

A 4-lei euro, a level that seemed unimaginable as early as atthe beginning of this year, when one euro was still close to the4.3-lei mark, is already considered by all analysts after the eurodepreciation against the leu sped up this week.

The NBR (National Bank) yesterday calculated an exchange rateof 4.1020 lei per one euro, 2.4 bani (1 leu - 100 bani) lower thanthe preceding level. The euro has not fared so poorly against theleu in the official exchange rate since the beginning of April2010. On the interbank forex market, the last transactions wereconducted at exchange rates of 4.0955 lei per one euroyesterday.

The appreciation of the Romanian currency in the last twomonths, which was potentially influenced by the NBR in thebeginning, has sparked the interest of foreign investors, who wantto benefit from the leu's rally. Citi and UniCredit analystsyesterday modified their targets, recommending to investors who hadin the past sold euros against lei to wait for a 4 lei/euroexchange rate before they take profit.

"The euro/leu exchange rate can fall to 4.03 level from 4.1 nowbut, but we do not think it will break those levels sustainably asCentral Bank will wish to discourage overly fast currencyappreciation," says Wike Groenenberg, analyst with Citi London.

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