The National Banks doubts the economic growth forecasts of thegovernment and even its capacity to rectify the budget deficit, asstated by Lucian Croitoru, advisor to the NBR Governor on monetarypolicy issues. This is a first for the NBR.
Economic growth might be even "more negative" than the currentprojection, which already indicates a 1.9% contraction, saidCroitoru yesterday during a seminar on the adoption of the euroorganised by the NBR. He says the Gross Domestic Product will notbe much higher in 2011, either.
Lucian Croitoru believes that adjusting the budget deficit will bevery hard to do, because one of the important levers to achieve itwas precisely the economic growth, which would have translated intoa larger taxation base for the state and subsequently into higherrevenues.
"We have to converge towards a budget deficit of 3% (of GDP in 2012i.e.) and 4.4% in 2011 from 6.8% this year. I believe both targetsare extremely difficult to reach. Deficit reduction is based on theGDP growth, which I don't think will occur. Even in 2010, thegrowth of the economy might be more negative than they'reestimating now," said Croitoru, adding that the 2011 GDP would notbe much different than this year's in real terms.
Therefore last year's scenario when economic performance forecastswere repeatedly revised downwards is repeating.
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
