Pascariu: We'll be able to think of growth as late as the autumn of 2010

Romania could bottom out in the autumn of 2010, while this year all improvement is ruled out as nothing is happening right now in terms of anti-crisis moves, and uncertainty related to the sealing of an agreement with the IMF are only swelling exchange rate and refinancing pressures, states Dan Pascariu, chairman of UniCredit Tiriac Bank board of directors. "I don't expect to see a recovery this year in any case. I believe it is as late as the autumn of 2010 that we can start looking up. Ultimately, we are fortunate this crisis has happened now and not later, because it's easier to fall from two instead of ten metres. Had the euphoria lasted longer, who knows what levels asset prices would have reached." He believes one of the problems in overcoming the crisis is that the generation of managers aged 35-40 advanced in a period of rapid growth and has not developed any skills to manage difficult periods. Pascariu considers the main conditions for growth to be resumed are rebuilding consumers' confidence, and the state's operating the investments in infrastructure promised. In the same crisis context, he believes the attacks against banks launched by politicians and analysts are becoming dangerous because they're encouraging loan delinquency and diluting efforts to attract deposit savings. As regards the record 2008 profits announced by most large banks, Pascariu says they are a guarantee that there are resources for the rising provisions to be entailed by the crisis and that no capital injections will be needed.