A Romanian rating upgrade by US rating agency Standard &Poor's (S&P) is only a matter of time and has nothing to do with the possible onset of a war against Iraq.
"We are about to complete Romania's performance review, following our recent visit to Bucharest. Many of the issues that conditioned a rating upgrade have been addressed, so that an improvement is only a matter of time," Helena Hessel, S&P analyst for Romania said.
She explains the S&P scenario is based on the hypothesis that the war against Iraq will be a very short one and will make no significant economic impact on any country, except those nearby.
"Under the circumstances, the war against Iraq does not make much of a difference in our analysis of Romania's rating. The main effect Romania might experience, is the surge in the oil price, which is likely to peak in March. We, however, do not believe the impact will be very significant, considering this increase will not maintain for too long,' Helena Hessel says.
S&P's rating for Romania is supposed to go up from B plus to BB minus next month. Even so, Romania would still be one step behind Bulgaria, which is already rated BB and has a positive rating outlook, as well.
The analysts agree the war against Iraq will not lead to possible downgrades of Romania's ratings. "We are not expecting the war against Iraq to make such a big impact on Romania that we will have to downgrade its rating. Part of the effects of the crisis - the increase in the oil price, the lower appetite of foreign investors for new operations are already being felt and we do not believe them to be very serious, anyway. Last year's performance should be a solid enough reason," Ed Parker, analyst for Romania with Fitch rating agency told Ziarul Financiar.
"It is highly unlikely that the country ratings in the region would be considerably affected by the foreign shocks this year, even in case of a war against Iraq," S&P's Kevin Daly in his turn says.
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
