Analysts anticipate a slight return to economic growth nextyear, after two years of recession, with the estimated GDP riseranging between Ă0.2% and Ă2%. However, even if Romania leavesrecession behind next year, the tentative economic growth will notbe felt in the standard of living.
The economic rebound remains fragile considering the fiscaladjustment started in mid this year, the unemployment rise and thereduction of capital flows. And the key factors to sustainableeconomic rebound are investments in infrastructure and structuralreforms.
It remains to be seen if forecasts will remain unmodified and ifthey will come true. The official forecast for the economy in 2010has moved from a 1.3% GDP growth at the beginning of the year to a0.5% decline at the end of May and to minus 1.9% toward the end ofthe year.
Ionuţ Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank, who has the mostupbeat forecast for next year, anticipates a 2% GDP growth.
As for the role of the state in the relaunch of the economy,analysts cite the need to ensure predictability and to reducetaxation red tape in order to attract foreign investments.
Lucian Anghel, chief economist of BCR, says five to ten strategicprojects of national importance should be singled out, and sparedfrom any kind of cuts, which should help restore investorconfidence.
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