In a risk scenario, the Romanian government takes into accountan economic growth rate of just 0.2% for this year, below the 1.3%target, and does not expect tax collection to improve amid thedifficult economic context: it also anticipates the need foradditional pension expenditures of 2bn RON per year. The 1.3%economic growth rate included in the basic scenario is ratherdetermined by export growth than domestic demand increase,representing a reversal of the growth pattern of recent years. Theeconomy last year contracted by 7.1%. The Government does not takeinto account improved tax collection on medium term given thedifficult economic environment, so that budgetary revenues will notreach 32% in GDP in the following years. In a risk scenario,revenues will not rise above 31.2% in GDP in 2010 and 2011. Cuttingthe budgetary deficit to below 3% by 2012 will be difficult toachieve if the economic rebound proves temporary and economicperformance is significantly inferior to the basic scenario.
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