Food sales on the Romanian market rose by 20% in terms of value in the last four months of 2008 from the same period of 2007, while these products' shelf prices advanced by 17%.
The fourth quarter of 2008 brought a FMCG growth slowdown in Romania, compared with the similar period of 2007, along all the main four categories, foods, beverages, non-foods and cigarettes.
Around 3% of the 20% growth rate of food sales can be accounted for by the rising consumer spending or consumers' switching to the premium segment.
The other three segments also posted over 10% increases, mainly because inflation, with the real growth of the entire FMCG trade in 2008 standing at 10% compared with 2007, according to MEMBR data. The quoted survey included only the retail sector, with the on-premise channel being thus excluded. The analysis covered only traditional trade and the store networks that offered data to MEMRB were Carrefour, Cora, Metro, Carrefour Express, Billa, Mega Image, G'market, Spar and Profi. In the researched interval, September-December 2008, the biggest increases came, just like in the first eight months of the year, from foods and beverages, with a pace of 20% and 26%, respectively, compared with the year before. The non-food segment increased by 14% in the analysed interval, as these products' prices advanced by 8%.
In late 2008, the representatives of major food retail networks and analysts forecast 2009 will bring major changes in the structure of the shopping basket, whose value will go down. Discount retailers will stand to gain the most and the market will witness a strong substitution effect due to harm the premium segment. At present, producers are no longer speaking of consumption increases, and retailers maintain that, amid the rising shelf prices and pressures on household budgets, the market is already seeing consumers shift to cheaper products.
Major store networks in food retail, despite gaining ground against traditional stores, also saw shrinking growth rates. Thus, in the first four months of 2008, consumer goods sales in modern retail rose by 22% from a year before, below the 25% pace posted in May-August 2008, according to MEMRB. The yearend growth was double the inflation rate in the store networks registered in the same period.
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