The Romanian pharmaceutical market is expected to grow by around 15% in 2008, to 2.2bn euros, in line with the estimates made by major players in the industry.
As a result, drug sales will maintain this year's growth rate, which is in line with forecasts made in early 2007. After two consecutive years of market growth, which saw figures surpass even the most upbeat expectations, in 2007 the projects that announced drug price cuts were strongly reflected in major players' turnovers.
However, the projects rescheduled for 2008 have raised questions as to how high the sales target for 2008 has been set.
"For 2008, the current growth rate (around 15%) is expected to continue, although analysts also consider a smaller growth rate (around 10%) given the Health Ministry's stated intention to change the way prices for prescription drugs are calculated, with a view to the alignment of prices to those in strongly competitive states in terms of price policy," said Dana Stanciulescu, country manager with Teva Pharmaceuticals.
Dan Zamonea, general manager of Roche Romania, shares the same opinion. "I believe a realistic increase for the overall market will revolve around 15% next year. At the same time, I foresee significant increases on the over-the-counter drug segment and for generics, as well as a considerable advance in the number of new innovative molecules, which will be available because of registration through the centralised European procedure," said Dan Zamonea.
Whist drug price cuts could drag the market down, the additional funds earmarked for the health sector, given that 2008 is an electoral year, will drive the market up.
Drug sales will also be bolstered by the population's rising health awareness and by the affordability of some drugs or an increasingly older population.
One of the features of the Romanian pharmaceutical market is the fluctuating trend of sales from one quarter to another. The Romanian market is dynamic, which often brings surprises, however this is a typical result for economies in full swing, says Zamonea.
The year 2008 is also expected to bring tighter competition on the segment of generics as the world's giants in the field compete for the top positions on the most attractive market in the region. At the production level, LaborMed is expected to be sold, which together with Antibiotice's takeover, could prove to be the most important events on the market. On the segment of distribution and retail, the dominant phenomenon is consolidation.
Other factors that have an impact on the overall market include simplified drug registration in the wake of EU integration, the rising GDP/capita and the higher budgetary sums earmarked for the health sector.
Pharmaceutical market in 2008
Forecast to maintain the 2007 growth rate, in line with major players' estimates
Funds earmarked for the health sector will increase by around 1.2bn euros
Is expected to further witness an fluctuating trend from one quarter to the next
The privatisation of Antibotice Iasi and LaborMed's sale could be the events of the year
The distribution segment is expected to witness further consolidation and the entrance of European giants
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