The first quarter showed that the Romanian economy has the capacity to grow at a steady pace, despite the turmoil witnessed on international markets. "Romania is following a positive economic trend," said Varujan Vosganian, Economy and Finance Minister, during a seminar organised by Finante si Afaceri (Finance and Business) magazine and NBR.
He pointed out that the vulnerabilities were not as great as the international rating agencies had thought. He reiterated that economic growth was estimated at 7.5% for the entire first quarter, and explained that Gross Domestic Product could advance by 7% this year, given a normal agricultural yield. Most analysts forecast slower economic growth (towards 5%) this year, whilst EBRD announced at the beginning of the week that it had revised its full-year 6.5% estimate downwards to 5%, as a result of interest rate increases.
However, the results posted by the biggest players in the Romanian industry for the first three months of the year contradict the hypotheses that forecast a decline in consumption on the domestic market.
On most of the markets analysed by ZIARUL FINANCIAR, starting with food, electronics and home appliances retail, construction and ending with energy and metallurgy, sales witnessed a two-digit growth rate.
"This country has persisted despite forecasts, we have avoided economic slowdown, and registered a faster rate instead. Although liquidity conditions on foreign markets are getting worse, lending is steadily going up (53% in real terms this March compared with March 2007)," NBR Governor Mugur Isarescu explained. Still, he warned that the faster pace, which comes at a time when the foreign environment is marked by turmoil, increases the exposure to risks.
The biggest player on the hypermarket segment for food retail, Carrefour Romania, posted a 9.8% sales increase in the first quarter, in comparable conditions (without taking network expansion and the acquisition of Artima into account), while producers like Albalact (milk industry) or Meda (meat industry), posted 20% higher sales.
However, the price increases of basic foods and utilities, which have been felt on the market since last autumn, have tempered the optimism of the consumer goods market. Interbrands and Unilever, two of the biggest FMCG companies, anticipated the first signs of slower growth in the first quarter compared with 2007.
Petroleum companies Petrom and Rompetrol Rafinare posted a 35% and 65% increase in business, after petroleum repeatedly broke records in terms of prices over the last few months.
Fuel producers resorted to repeated price increases for petrol and diesel, which did not hinder consumption, or car sales.
The automotive market, which is estimated to grow by 5% this year, went up by 17.2% in the first three months compared with the same time last year and reached 82,258 units, 67,423 units of which were cars, whose sales rose by 12.4%.
Electronics and home appliance retailers (Altex and Flamingo) did not lower their targets below 20% either, which is, however, lower than the 35% forecast at the beginning of the year.
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